Global semicon sales forecast results: Cowan LRA model

Friends, carrying on with my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry, here’s the global semiconductor industry sales forecasts, by Mike Cowan. First of all, I would like to acknowledge Mike for sharing his findings and thank him for his continuous tracking of the semiconductor industry.

The just updated global S/C sales forecast estimates are based upon the recently-published July 2009 actual sales number released last Tuesday by the WSTS (posted Sept 1st on their website – wsts.org).

The table provided below summarizes the details of the latest, updated forecast numbers covering the next six quarters, that is, from 3Q09 through 4Q10, inclusively, as well as for the full years of 2009 and 2010.

As shown in the table, the latest forecast updates for years 2009 and 2010 chip sales forecast estimates both increased by +3.3 percent to $205.4 billion and $221.1 billion, respectively, compared to last month’s sales forecast estimates of $198.9 billion, and $214.9 billion, respectively.

These updated 2009 and 2010 chip sales forecast estimates correspond to yr-o-yr sales growth forecast estimates of -17.4 billion and +8.1 billion, respectively, which represent improvements compared to last month’s sales growth predictions of -20 percent and +8 percent.Source: Mike Cowan.

It should be highlighted that July 09’s actual cumulative YTD sales (of $114.82 billion) growth (compared to last July 08’s actual cum YTD sales of $148.29 billion) came in at -22.6 percent, indicating that the model is projecting an improvement relative to today’s 2009 actual YTD sales growth number, for the full year.

Remember that the model is dynamic, that is, it is recalculated each month as the year plays out; therefore today’s latest, updated full year sales growth prediction will not sit still but will evolve over the coming months.

Finally, the model also projects a sales forecast estimate for next month, namely for August, 2009. Thus August’s (actual) sales forecast estimate is projected to be $16.96 billion, which corresponds to a 3MMA sales forecast estimate of $18.38 billion as normally published by the SIA.

In addition to running his forecasting model each month, Cowan also “keep tabs” on a wide range of other S/C industry watchers (including both WSTS and SIA bi-yearly forecasts) thereby tracking what each of their respective predictions are for 2009’s sales growth (compared to 2008).

Global semicon sales forecast results: Cowan LRA model

Friends, carrying on with my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry, here's the global semiconductor industry sales forecasts, by Mike Cowan. First of all, I would like to acknowledge Mike for sharing his findings and thank him for his continuous tracking of the semiconductor industry.

The just updated global semiconductor sales forecast estimates based upon the recently-published June 2009 actual sales number released last Monday by the WSTS (posted Aug. 3, on its website).

The table below details the latest, updated forecast numbers covering the next six quarters, that is, from 3Q09 through 4Q10, respectively.

As shown in the table the latest update to the year 2009 sales forecast estimate increased by +1.4 percent to $198.9 billion (compared to the previous month's sales forecast estimate of $196.2 billion).

This updated 2009 sales forecast estimate corresponds to an yr-o-yr sales growth forecast estimate of -20 percent, which represents a slight improvement compared to last month's sales growth prediction of -21.1 percent.Sources: Actuals => WSTS; Forecasts => Cowan LRA Model (August 2009)

It should be highlighted that June 09's actual YTD sales ($95.927 billion) growth (compared to last June 08's actual YTD sales of $127.508 billion) came in at -24.8 percent indicating that the model is projecting an improvement relative to today's 2009 actual YTD sales growth number, for the end of the year.

Remember that the model is dynamic, that is, is recalculated each month as the year plays out; and therefore today's updated full year sales growth prediction will not sit still but will evolve over the coming months.

Finally, the model also provides a sales forecast estimate for next month, namely for July. Thus, July's (actual) sales forecast estimate is projected to be $15.221 billion, which corresponds to a 3MMA sales forecast estimate of $16.930B as normally published by the SIA.

In addition to running his forecasting model each month, Cowan also "keep tabs" on a wide range of other semiconductor industry watchers (including both WSTS and SIA bi-yearly forecasts), thereby tracking what their respective predictions are for 2009's sales growth (compared to 2008).Source: Mike Cowan

The table (as well as distribution graphic) summarizes (pictures) the 2009 sales growth forecast estimates for 21 other market researchers (besides Cowan himself).

As shown in the table, ongoing revisions for each market analyst are listed along with the latest updates over the past month -- three during this time period -- highlighted as (<== UPDATE).

As is evident from surveying the numbers for the group included in the table, the most update 2009 sales growth predictions range is relatively broad but with a strong "central tendency" hovering around a decline of approximately 20 percent (six forecasters).

Cowan has also "extended" the model for an additional quarter (that is, through 4Q10) in order to get a preview of what the model had to "say" about a sales (and sales growth)forecast for the full year of 2010.Source: Mike Cowan

Thus, as shown in the table above -- see the bottom three rows of (underlined) numbers -- 4Q10's sales forecast is projected to be $54.853 billion and the full year 2010's sales forecast is forecasted to come in at $214.925 billion, which yields a 2010 year-on-year sales growth of 8 percent.

It should be mentioned that the WSTS's and SIA's 2010 sales growth forecasts are projected to be 7.3 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively. Therefore, looks like the model's 2010 sales growth forecast is slightly more bullish than the two industry organizations' forecasts reported back in (the beginning of) June, 2009.

IC Insights updated forecast: Two IC products forecast to grow in tough '09

USA: WSTS (Worldwide Semiconductor Trade Statistics) classifies ICs into 29 distinct product categories. Only two of these segments -- telecom-analog and telecom-special purpose logic/MPR -- are forecast to show revenue growth in 2009 according to a just-released market forecast from IC Insights.

Spurred by the ongoing movement to higher-end cellphones (i.e., smartphones), the Telecom-Analog IC market is forecast to grow 4 percent to $8.3 billion and the Telecom-Special Purpose Logic market is now forecast to increase 14 percent to $22.2 billion in 2009. Besides wireless handsets, basestations, Bluetooth connections, and Wi-Fi networks are also helping to drive growth in these IC segments.

As shown in Fig. 1, cellphone unit shipments are forecast to decline 8 percent in 2009, yet significant quarterly growth is expected from the low-point exhibited in 1Q09. In fact, 4Q09 cellphone unit shipments are forecast to be 27 percent greater than in 1Q09 and higher than any quarter of 2008!Source: IC Insights

Among all cellphones, 3G smartphones continue to represent an increasing portion of shipments. These feature-rich, high-end phones and the infrastructure needed to support them require a significant amount of leading-edge logic, a large amount of memory, and analog ICs specific for telecom applications.

According to IC Insights' research, smartphones accounted for 15 percent of the 245 million cellphone units shipped in 1Q09 and are forecast to represent slightly more than 20 percent of the 310 million cellphone shipments in 4Q09.

Aside from increases in these two wireless-telecom IC segments, all other product categories are forecast to decrease in sales in 2009.

European semiconductor sales down 0.9 percent in April

BRUSSLES, BELGIUM: Sales on the European semiconductor market have been weaker in April compared with the previous month, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) reports. It seems that worldwide semiconductor sales may have hit the bottom for the second time in the short term trend.

Some important product categories have shown good dynamics in April. In particular, sensors and actuators grew by 6 percent, total analog by 3 percent, and MOS digital signal processors by 5 percent. On the memory market, positive figures were reported for DRAM (up 6 percent) and flash memories (in particular NAND, up 11 percent).

Looking at application specific chips, communications and automotive applications specific analog grew by 19 percent and 6 percent, respectively, contributing mostly to the growth of the analog market in April.

Overall, European semiconductor sales in April 2009 amounted to $ 2.168 billion. This corresponds to a decline of 35 percent compared to the same month last year. On a YTD basis semiconductor sales declined by 34.3 percent in 2009 versus the same period in the year 2008.

The exchange rate imbalance of the Euro compared to the US dollar holds its impact on the European sales picture. Measured in Euro, semiconductor sales of 1.666 billion Euros in April 2009 were weaker again, down 0.6 percent on the previous month and down 23.5 percent versus the same month a year ago. On a YTD basis semiconductor sales declined by 24 percent in 2009 versus the same period in the year 2008.

On a worldwide basis, semiconductor sales in April 2009 were $ 15.638 billion, up 6.4 percent versus the previous month. Compared to the same month in 2008, this results in a decline of 25.1 percent and on an YTD basis it results in a decline of 26.5 percent.