TAIPEI, TAIWAN: According to DRAMeXchange, Kingston, the worldwide memory module leader, adjusted DDR2 2GB module to $23.5 from $20.
Currently, the most updated price is $26.5. This movement also lead to the upward pricing trend in spot market, resulting in the 32 percent rise in DDR2 1Gb 800Mhz to $1.45 from $1.10 in mid-July, while DDR2 1Gb eTT hiked 37 percent to $1.44 from $1.05 on July 15. DDR3 1Gb 1333Mhz also nearly reached 30 percent to $2.12 from $1.65 on July 15.
Kingston lowered 2GB module price to $20 from $23 for the sake of stimulating sales and smoothed inventory level with negative view toward DDR2. In July, Kingston reveals the concern toward DDR2 supply in 4Q09 given the boosting demand from PC-OEMs and aggressive transition to DDR3 by Elpida-most important DRAM supplier for Kingston. It is believed that Kingston is seeking to secure the DDR2 supply in 2H09 by re-financing to PSC.
DDR2 shortage is expected in spot market; 1Gb chips will likely to reach $1.5 and likely to go higher
Elpida, PSC and Nanya are regarded as the main suppliers in spot market accordingly. Elpida is said that their DDR3 wafer-in portion will be around 40 percent of total commodity DRAM while Nanya will apply Micron’s technology to produce DDR3.
However, DDR2 will remain the mainstream transaction target in spot market by the year end and DDR3 portion is estimated less than 10 percent. Therefore, DDR2 products will face shortage in spot market and $1.5 will likely to be achieved.
According to our survey about DRAM consumption, Kingston can be ranked in No. 2 place that consume more DRAM than Dell and Acer. Kingston has always retained good relationship with DRAM vendors.
In order to secure the DRAM supply, Kingston tends to be the angel to DRAM vendors when they are in troughs. Before 2008, around 50 percent of ProMOS shipment went to Kingston but that situation changed since ProMOS couldn't produce 1Gb chip afterwards.
With the expanded capability that Rexchip has, Kingston’s relationship with Elpida has gotten closer. Relatively high portions of Elpida’s output in PSC and Rexchip eventually went to Kingston. However, DDR2 in spot market will be influenced under the aggressiveness of DDR3 transition of Elpida.
DRAMeXchange expresses that in the beginning of this year, PSC worked hard negotiating with Kingston regarding to the bailout plans and the negotiation turns positive when $158 million ECB redemption plans are agreed by 96 percent of bondholders.
In 7/9, PTI declared to inject $17 million to PSC through Kingston. That is, total bailout funding for both PTI and Kingston amounted US$125M and the money is limited to the use of daily operation and debt payment. At the meantime, PSC will largely expand DDR2 capacity to meet demand from Kingston.
With the aggressiveness DDR3 transition of two major suppliers in spot market, Elpida and Nanya, PSC will become the other major supplier for Kingston given the expanded capacity.
Showing posts with label Rexchip. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rexchip. Show all posts
Wednesday, 12 August 2009
Wednesday, 1 July 2009
DDR3 July contract price likely to rise 5~10 percent
TAIPEI, TAIWAN: The June contract price did not fluctuate since some contract deals between PC OEMs and DRAM vendors are conducted either in monthly basis or quarterly basis. DRAMeXchange believes that DDR3 contract price in July will increase 5 percent~10 percent due to the aggressive CULV promotion and new contract deal negotiation in July.
As for spot market, given the stable range between $1.5~$1.7 of DDR3 1Gb chip with 50 percent premium compared to DDR2 1Gb chip, DDR2 1Gb chip price has dropped to $1 from $1.34 in May, says DRAMeXchange.
From the supply side perspective, DRAM vendors adopted the “Capacity Cut” strategy through the difficult period in 2H’08 given the frozen demand and global financial crisis. Qimonda was filed bankruptcy early this year, while ProMOS maintained the minimum operation.
With the improved economy, DRAM vendors gradually enhance production. DDR3 wafer-in portion is expected to be up to 30 percent in Q4’09 from 15 percent in Q1’09, while Korean and Japanese vendors demonstrate the great ambition on the DDR3 migration.
Nanya and Inotera are the only capable Taiwanese vendors that can dedicate to DDR3 production. However, the DDR3 portion of Nanya and Inotera is below 10 percent, while the remaining 90 percent is occupied by Korean and Japanese vendors (see Fig. 1).
DRAM vendors were suffering from the big financial trough in the downturn economy crisis that this circumstance resulted in the obvious CAPEX gap especially in DDR3 migration. This situation is way different from what DRAM vendors devoted CAPEX in 70nm and 65nm technology. As for Korean vendors, they do aggressively conduct not only DDR3 migration, but 50nm technology adoption as well.
It is expected that at least 70 percent DDR3 chips will be produced with 50m technology. 65nm remains current mainstream technology for Japanese vendors that they do contend competitiveness if the total chip amount can be increased via “Die Shrink” process.
Although Qimonda’s 70nm technology is still adopted to produce DDR3, Micron’s 68nm and 50nm technology will be mainly applied in 2H’09. This technology migration will give Nanya and Inotera some credit to compete with Korean/Japanese vendors. Meanwhile, Powerchip and Rexchip are both qualified for mess production, according to DRAMeXchange (see Fig. 2).
As for spot market, given the stable range between $1.5~$1.7 of DDR3 1Gb chip with 50 percent premium compared to DDR2 1Gb chip, DDR2 1Gb chip price has dropped to $1 from $1.34 in May, says DRAMeXchange.
From the supply side perspective, DRAM vendors adopted the “Capacity Cut” strategy through the difficult period in 2H’08 given the frozen demand and global financial crisis. Qimonda was filed bankruptcy early this year, while ProMOS maintained the minimum operation.
With the improved economy, DRAM vendors gradually enhance production. DDR3 wafer-in portion is expected to be up to 30 percent in Q4’09 from 15 percent in Q1’09, while Korean and Japanese vendors demonstrate the great ambition on the DDR3 migration.
Nanya and Inotera are the only capable Taiwanese vendors that can dedicate to DDR3 production. However, the DDR3 portion of Nanya and Inotera is below 10 percent, while the remaining 90 percent is occupied by Korean and Japanese vendors (see Fig. 1).
DRAM vendors were suffering from the big financial trough in the downturn economy crisis that this circumstance resulted in the obvious CAPEX gap especially in DDR3 migration. This situation is way different from what DRAM vendors devoted CAPEX in 70nm and 65nm technology. As for Korean vendors, they do aggressively conduct not only DDR3 migration, but 50nm technology adoption as well.
It is expected that at least 70 percent DDR3 chips will be produced with 50m technology. 65nm remains current mainstream technology for Japanese vendors that they do contend competitiveness if the total chip amount can be increased via “Die Shrink” process.
Although Qimonda’s 70nm technology is still adopted to produce DDR3, Micron’s 68nm and 50nm technology will be mainly applied in 2H’09. This technology migration will give Nanya and Inotera some credit to compete with Korean/Japanese vendors. Meanwhile, Powerchip and Rexchip are both qualified for mess production, according to DRAMeXchange (see Fig. 2).
Monday, 11 May 2009
Q109 revenue of global DRAM industry drops 22.3pc
TAIPEI, TAIWAN: According to DRAMeXchange, as the DDR2 1Gb contract quarterly average price dropped around 25 percent in Q109, the Q109 DRAM revenue decreased 22.3 percent QoQ.
Despite the declining contract price, Samsung and Hynix output cut down by 7.7 percent and 8.6 percent, and revenue shrunk by 16.1 percent and 16.3 percent, respectively. Samsung and Hynix proved a market share growth (26.5 percent and 22.3 percent). Samsung still ranks No. 1, followed by Hynix, resulting from the outperformed operation in first quarter.
For the different accounting periods (Q1 for Micron is Dec. Jan. and Feb.), Micron demonstrated the greater market share drop to 15.2 percent from 16.9 percent in Q4 with 35 percent contract price decline in last period (Q4 for Micron is Sep., Oct. and Nov.).
In March, Elpida started to receive all output production from Rexchip with the OEM shipment termination from PSC and revised capacity cut from Japan facility, the total production has descended in Q1. The Q1 revenue is down 24.5 % QoQ compared with Q408.
Qimonda filed bankruptcy in corporate restructuring process in Q1. The termination of OEM outsourcing from Inotera and Winbond and shutting down the US facility has resulted in the huge market share drop. Market share in Q1 is merely 4.7 percent.
Taiwan vendors
As for Taiwanese vendors, PSC announced $115 million in Q109 with -32 percent QoQ. Instead of contract manufacturing for Elpida, the capacity was used for own brand products. Thus, the own brand market share suprisingly grew to 17.4 percent.
Winbond announced $92 million in Q1 with -20% QoQ. Despite the revenue decline, Winbond's own brand market share increased 9.6 percent because of the output translation to own brand products since Qimonda filed bankruptcy.
With the contract price decline, Nanya's revenue merely shrunk 3.7 percent QoQ due to the raising portion in spot market and effect of two-weeks-degree inventory clearance. Due to the Qimonda's bankruptcy and revenue declining 55 percent in Q1, and Nanya jumped to No. 5 place in terms of brand-owned revenues. (Figure 1).
Fig. 1 1Q09 WW top 10 DRAM revenue ranking, by own brand DRAM revenue
(Company revenue includes outsourced portion and excludes the sub-manufacturing revenue)
Unit: Million US dollars
Source: DRAMeXchange, May. 2009
Korean vendors
Korean vendors accounts for 48.8 percent in terms of DRAM chip production market share and own brand revenue are consistent with production revenue now since Hynix stopped outsourcing from financial struggling ProMos in Q1. Taiwanese vendors used to have larger portion of OEM and this situation has changed dramatically in Q1.
Except for ProMos' case, PSC stopped OEM shipment to Elpida while Winbond and Inotera stopped the OEM shipment due to the Qimonda bankruptcy. The market share has dropped to 19.2 percent from 23.2 percent because of the capacity cut. Micron's share slightly decreased to 15.3 percent, while Elpida's increased to 12.1 percent (Figure-2 and Figure-3)
Fig. 2 1Q09 WW top 10 DRAM revenue ranking, by DRAM chip production revenue
(Company revenue includes sub-manufacturing revenue and excludes the outsourced portion)
Unit: Million USD
Source: DRAMeXchange, May. 2009
Market share of DRAM chip production revenue
Source: DRAMeXchange, May. 2009.
For the global own brand, the Korean vendors' share accounts for 50.1 percent (excluding others) and its leadership position remained unchallenged in Q1. Taiwanese vendors' share slightly increased to 13.6 percent from 11.8 percent due to the production adjustment by PSC, Nanya and Winbond.
The remaining market shares are occupied by Japanese vendors (15.8 percent) and American vendors (15.7 percent).
Market share of own brand DRAM revenue
Source: DRAMeXchange, May. 2009.
Note:
Figure 1:
** The revenue ranking by DRAM vendor own brand: The revenue in the table is using the results which were announced by the DRAM vendors and deduct the non-DRAM business revenue, then converted the number into USD basis with the average 1Q foreign exchange rate. This table is based on the vendor brand revenue basis.
** for Samsung Q1 DRAM revenue, DRAMeXChange approximatively derived the result by deducting LSI revenue from semiconductor based on the assumption that DRAM accounts for 48 percent in memory sectors and Q1 average exchange rate is USD KRW/1:1414. We apply this estimation to other vendors by indicating 76 percent for Hynix's total revenue, 79 percent for PSC, 90 percent for ProMos, 94 percent for Nanya and 80 percent for Winbond under the following exchange rate : USD to NTD/1:33.97, USD to JPY/1:93.63, USD to EUR/1:0.767.
Figure-2:
** Based on the fab manufacturing basis, the revenue is calculated and ranked by the total chip production revenue of the vendor’s fabs. Thus, the revenues of pure manufacturing vendors such as Rexchip and Inotera were independently listed. The Rexchip portion is excluded from the revenue of Elpida, the Inotera portion is excluded from the revenue of Nanya Technology. The reason we post the second table is because of the outsourcing percentage varied in Q109 and this effect will impact on Taiwanese vendor's revenue and market share ranking.
Despite the declining contract price, Samsung and Hynix output cut down by 7.7 percent and 8.6 percent, and revenue shrunk by 16.1 percent and 16.3 percent, respectively. Samsung and Hynix proved a market share growth (26.5 percent and 22.3 percent). Samsung still ranks No. 1, followed by Hynix, resulting from the outperformed operation in first quarter.
For the different accounting periods (Q1 for Micron is Dec. Jan. and Feb.), Micron demonstrated the greater market share drop to 15.2 percent from 16.9 percent in Q4 with 35 percent contract price decline in last period (Q4 for Micron is Sep., Oct. and Nov.).
In March, Elpida started to receive all output production from Rexchip with the OEM shipment termination from PSC and revised capacity cut from Japan facility, the total production has descended in Q1. The Q1 revenue is down 24.5 % QoQ compared with Q408.
Qimonda filed bankruptcy in corporate restructuring process in Q1. The termination of OEM outsourcing from Inotera and Winbond and shutting down the US facility has resulted in the huge market share drop. Market share in Q1 is merely 4.7 percent.
Taiwan vendors
As for Taiwanese vendors, PSC announced $115 million in Q109 with -32 percent QoQ. Instead of contract manufacturing for Elpida, the capacity was used for own brand products. Thus, the own brand market share suprisingly grew to 17.4 percent.
Winbond announced $92 million in Q1 with -20% QoQ. Despite the revenue decline, Winbond's own brand market share increased 9.6 percent because of the output translation to own brand products since Qimonda filed bankruptcy.
With the contract price decline, Nanya's revenue merely shrunk 3.7 percent QoQ due to the raising portion in spot market and effect of two-weeks-degree inventory clearance. Due to the Qimonda's bankruptcy and revenue declining 55 percent in Q1, and Nanya jumped to No. 5 place in terms of brand-owned revenues. (Figure 1).
Fig. 1 1Q09 WW top 10 DRAM revenue ranking, by own brand DRAM revenue
(Company revenue includes outsourced portion and excludes the sub-manufacturing revenue)
Unit: Million US dollarsSource: DRAMeXchange, May. 2009
Korean vendors
Korean vendors accounts for 48.8 percent in terms of DRAM chip production market share and own brand revenue are consistent with production revenue now since Hynix stopped outsourcing from financial struggling ProMos in Q1. Taiwanese vendors used to have larger portion of OEM and this situation has changed dramatically in Q1.
Except for ProMos' case, PSC stopped OEM shipment to Elpida while Winbond and Inotera stopped the OEM shipment due to the Qimonda bankruptcy. The market share has dropped to 19.2 percent from 23.2 percent because of the capacity cut. Micron's share slightly decreased to 15.3 percent, while Elpida's increased to 12.1 percent (Figure-2 and Figure-3)
Fig. 2 1Q09 WW top 10 DRAM revenue ranking, by DRAM chip production revenue
(Company revenue includes sub-manufacturing revenue and excludes the outsourced portion)
Unit: Million USDSource: DRAMeXchange, May. 2009
Market share of DRAM chip production revenue
Source: DRAMeXchange, May. 2009.For the global own brand, the Korean vendors' share accounts for 50.1 percent (excluding others) and its leadership position remained unchallenged in Q1. Taiwanese vendors' share slightly increased to 13.6 percent from 11.8 percent due to the production adjustment by PSC, Nanya and Winbond.
The remaining market shares are occupied by Japanese vendors (15.8 percent) and American vendors (15.7 percent).
Market share of own brand DRAM revenue
Source: DRAMeXchange, May. 2009.Note:
Figure 1:
** The revenue ranking by DRAM vendor own brand: The revenue in the table is using the results which were announced by the DRAM vendors and deduct the non-DRAM business revenue, then converted the number into USD basis with the average 1Q foreign exchange rate. This table is based on the vendor brand revenue basis.
** for Samsung Q1 DRAM revenue, DRAMeXChange approximatively derived the result by deducting LSI revenue from semiconductor based on the assumption that DRAM accounts for 48 percent in memory sectors and Q1 average exchange rate is USD KRW/1:1414. We apply this estimation to other vendors by indicating 76 percent for Hynix's total revenue, 79 percent for PSC, 90 percent for ProMos, 94 percent for Nanya and 80 percent for Winbond under the following exchange rate : USD to NTD/1:33.97, USD to JPY/1:93.63, USD to EUR/1:0.767.
Figure-2:
** Based on the fab manufacturing basis, the revenue is calculated and ranked by the total chip production revenue of the vendor’s fabs. Thus, the revenues of pure manufacturing vendors such as Rexchip and Inotera were independently listed. The Rexchip portion is excluded from the revenue of Elpida, the Inotera portion is excluded from the revenue of Nanya Technology. The reason we post the second table is because of the outsourcing percentage varied in Q109 and this effect will impact on Taiwanese vendor's revenue and market share ranking.
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