TEMPE, USA: Forward Concepts has announced the publication of its newest in-depth annual study of the worldwide cellphone market and virtually all of the chips that go into them.
The extensive (594-page) study, “Cellular Handset & Chip Markets '09,” gauges the performance of the top 53 handset vendors and ranks their 2008 market shares. The study provides dozens of detailed forecasts by technology and by global region through 2013 of handsets, subscribers and cellular handset chips of all types.
In addition, the report provides estimates of the market shares of cellphone vendors by air technology, including HSPA+ and LTE. Even ultra-low-cost cellphones are forecast by air interface. Importantly, the study estimates market shares of chip vendors for virtually every chip type and for every applicable air technology.
Market metrics are the central focus of the study, and some key findings are:
* Cellphone unit market growth continues slowing globally. The 2008 market was up 4.1 percent, but is forecast to decline by 4.4 percent in 2009 to 1.22 billion shipments. However, a healthier 12.8 percent growth is forecast for 2010.
* In spite of an overall decline this year, smartphone shipments are predicted to grow by 25 percent, feature phones by 2.5 percent and ultra-low-cost phones for developing countries will grow by 14.5 percent.
* The fast-growing smartphone market is driving introduction of peripherals that support Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, GPS, and FM radio on a single chip.
* HSPA+ is emerging in 2009, and will begin to displace WCDMA and HSDPA. LTE will begin in 2010, first as data cards and dongles. The forecast calls for LTE handsets to reach 56 million units in 2013 for a compound growth rate of 262 percent.
* Although the cellphone digital mobile TV market is growing, free-to-air analog mobile TV will dominate the 78-million receiver unit market in 2009, accounting for over half of the world market -- driven by the demand in China, Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe.
* The ever-present LCD display will soon have to make room for newer displays, like OLED, ePaper, Qualcomm's Mirasol, and Liquavista. The market for these new "post-LCD" displays is growing fast -- to over $3 billion in 2013.
* MEMS constitute another fast-growing component family in the cellphone market, expanding from basic accelerometers, to filters, gyroscopes, RF switches and microphones, reaching over $1.6 billion in 2013.
* Application processor competition is heating up as the demand for increasing video and Internet functionality grows with 3G's higher data rates. There is a clear trend of bundling application processors with digital basebands, either on a single die or in a multichip package. The resulting "Communication Processors" are becoming popular, and could ultimately hurt companies which specialize in only one of those components.
According to the principal author, Carter L. Horney: "The cellphone continues to be the physical and market magnet that is pulling in the functionality of digital cameras, PDAs, MP3 players, GPS navigators, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, AM/FM Radio, mobile TV, cordless phones, smart cards and even fingerprint sensors, and the cellphone is quickly becoming the dominant market for each and all of these functions.
"Our report covers all of these cellphone component markets, and companies making stand-alone versions of such products would be well-advised to understand how their market will be impacted by cellphones."
Will Strauss, Forward Concepts’ president and editor of the report, said: “Qualcomm and continues to dominate the cellphone chip market, but ST-Ericsson is expected to displace Texas Instruments for the number-two spot in 2009. Infineon is not far behind and with recent new financing, their future appears brighter now.
"With new peripherals and features being continually added, there opportunities for smaller vendors to target new chip types to get their piece of the market. This valuable resource provides the key information needed for new business plans. We are confident that this study provides the most comprehensive coverage of cellphone and cellphone chip markets available."
Showing posts with label OLED. Show all posts
Showing posts with label OLED. Show all posts
Saturday, 18 July 2009
Tuesday, 2 June 2009
E-book semiconductor opportunity to reach $1.1bn in 2013
USA: E-book shipments are taking off, with worldwide shipments expected to grow from almost 1 million units in 2008 to close to 30 million units in 2013, reports In-Stat.
This rapid shipment growth will create new revenue streams for semiconductor companies in the industry since the semiconductor opportunity is expected to surpass $1 billion by 2013.
Amazon is emerging as the leader with its Kindle lineup, due to its content delivery service. Amazon has partnered with cellular network operator, Sprint, to enable Kindle users to wirelessly access digital e-book.
Amazon and Sprint are providing an easy-to-use, end-to-end content delivery solution for the consumer, which is essential for mass market adoption of an emerging technology. Rumors abound of new entrants to the e-book market, and the amount of digital content is only increasing. In-Stat believes that e-books represent a strong revenue opportunity for component suppliers, equipment manufacturers, and now wireless operators, alike.
Recent research by In-Stat found the following:
* The semiconductor and electronic components segment across the display assembly, processor, wireless module, DRAM, NAND, battery and enclosure. The display segment will represent the largest component opportunity, followed by the wireless module.
* The processor opportunity within eBooks will approach $227 million by 2013.
* The bill of materials (BOM) of a typical e-book will decrease by 23 percent between 2009 and 2013, as unit volume ramps up.
* Most of the e-books on that market today use E Ink display technology, but this does not rule out the potential for OLED or other display technologies in the future.
This rapid shipment growth will create new revenue streams for semiconductor companies in the industry since the semiconductor opportunity is expected to surpass $1 billion by 2013.
Amazon is emerging as the leader with its Kindle lineup, due to its content delivery service. Amazon has partnered with cellular network operator, Sprint, to enable Kindle users to wirelessly access digital e-book.
Amazon and Sprint are providing an easy-to-use, end-to-end content delivery solution for the consumer, which is essential for mass market adoption of an emerging technology. Rumors abound of new entrants to the e-book market, and the amount of digital content is only increasing. In-Stat believes that e-books represent a strong revenue opportunity for component suppliers, equipment manufacturers, and now wireless operators, alike.
Recent research by In-Stat found the following:
* The semiconductor and electronic components segment across the display assembly, processor, wireless module, DRAM, NAND, battery and enclosure. The display segment will represent the largest component opportunity, followed by the wireless module.
* The processor opportunity within eBooks will approach $227 million by 2013.
* The bill of materials (BOM) of a typical e-book will decrease by 23 percent between 2009 and 2013, as unit volume ramps up.
* Most of the e-books on that market today use E Ink display technology, but this does not rule out the potential for OLED or other display technologies in the future.
Sunday, 29 June 2008
10-point program for Karnataka semicon policy
A very interesting question was recently thrown at me: what sort of semiconductor policy should Karnataka adopt as a state! I shall attempt to highlight some of the activities the Karnataka government can look at implementing in the semicon/EMS space.
Let us first go back to last September, when the Indian government issued fab guidelines. Besides wafer IC and solar/PV fabs, the Indian government is seeking investments in ecosystem units for LCDs, OLEDs, PDPs, photovoltaics, solar cells, storage devices, advanced micro and nanotech products, etc.
The 'ecosystem units' have been clearly defined as units, other than a fab unit, for manufacture of semiconductors, displays, including LCDs, OLEDs, PDPs, any other emerging displays; storage devices; solar cells; photovoltaics; other advanced micro and nanotechnology products; and assembly and test of all the above products.
For starters, the Karnataka state needs to have a long-term semiconductor policy in place, running 20-25 years or so. This cannot be a short-term plan! It would be prudent to have the top Indian leaders from Indian firms and MNCs, e.g., Ittiam, MindTree, Synopsys, Cadence, TI, Analog Devices, as well as the Indian Institute of Science (IISc.) and some other leading technology institutes, be the part of a core state semiconductor policy team to oversee the implementations. Future state governments would only need to update the status and keep it rolling forward.
Incentives need to be built in as well, including more tax holidays, etc. Whether it needs to be 25-30 percent or higher, is to be debated. Next, the focus of a semicon policy should be aimed at solving some particular local problem, which can go on to solve a much bigger national problem.
All of this should be done with, keeping in view to improving the infrastructure in the state, such as roads, water, electricity, etc. Foreign investors would shy away if infrastructure issues were not tackled first.
In this context, the Karnataka government should first look at having some solar/PV fabs in the state, as well as those in the nanotech space. Next, it would be prudent to pursue a policy of attracting companies in the verification and testing domains. Rather, have companies in the ATMP space, a pointer, which has been coming up in most of the discussions.
As an example, last year, an Israeli company -- Nova Measuring Instruments -- was keen on entering India. Nova develops, produces, and markets advanced monitoring, measurement and process control systems for the semiconductor manufacturing industry. It should be pursued to start assembly and testing of products in the state.
Wafer IC fabs are going to be a tough act to follow. Unless a company can get the requisite funding for a 300mm fab, it is not advisable to follow that path. However, there is room for developing 200mm fabs, or even 150mm and 180mm fabs. These can be used to develop indigenous and simple applications. If such fabs are developed, those companies offering fab-related services can be attracted as well.
The Indian semicon policy statement speaks about having ecosystem units. It would be advisable to attract smaller companies and look at setting up manufacturing units. As an example, Synopsys's Subhash Bal had once pointed out how RFID can be used in a host of applications. That's not all. Why not pursue companies in the OLEDs/LEDs and PDPs spaces as well, besides those manufacturing LCDs, even if smaller-sized.
Finally, consider attracting and promoting companies in the fabless space, as it looks to be the way ahead for the semiconductor industry.
Here is a 10-point program for the Karnataka government to consider as a likely semiconductor policy.
1. A long-term semiconductor policy running 20-25 years or so.
2. Core team of top Indian leaders from Indian firms and MNCs, as well as technology institutes in Karnataka to oversee policy implementation.
3. Incentives such as government support, including stake in investments, and tax holidays.
4. Strong infrastructure availability and management.
5. Focus on having solar/PV fabs in the state.
6. Consider having 150/180/200mm fabs that tackle local problems via indigenous applications.
7. Develop companies in the assembly testing, verification and packaging (ATMP) space.
8. Attract companies in fields such as RFID, to address local problems and develop local applications.
9. Pursue companies in the PDP, OLED/LED space to set up manufacturing units.
10. Promote and set up more fabless units.
There should be some steps to create specific zones for setting up such units -- for fabs, fabless, ATMP, manufacturing, etc., all spread equally across the state.
On a personal note, I would be keen and willing to work with the Indian/Karnataka government, or the concerned parties, in formulating such a policy, should I am invited. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than seeing India, and Karnataka, shining in the semiconductor space.
Let us first go back to last September, when the Indian government issued fab guidelines. Besides wafer IC and solar/PV fabs, the Indian government is seeking investments in ecosystem units for LCDs, OLEDs, PDPs, photovoltaics, solar cells, storage devices, advanced micro and nanotech products, etc.
The 'ecosystem units' have been clearly defined as units, other than a fab unit, for manufacture of semiconductors, displays, including LCDs, OLEDs, PDPs, any other emerging displays; storage devices; solar cells; photovoltaics; other advanced micro and nanotechnology products; and assembly and test of all the above products.
For starters, the Karnataka state needs to have a long-term semiconductor policy in place, running 20-25 years or so. This cannot be a short-term plan! It would be prudent to have the top Indian leaders from Indian firms and MNCs, e.g., Ittiam, MindTree, Synopsys, Cadence, TI, Analog Devices, as well as the Indian Institute of Science (IISc.) and some other leading technology institutes, be the part of a core state semiconductor policy team to oversee the implementations. Future state governments would only need to update the status and keep it rolling forward.
Incentives need to be built in as well, including more tax holidays, etc. Whether it needs to be 25-30 percent or higher, is to be debated. Next, the focus of a semicon policy should be aimed at solving some particular local problem, which can go on to solve a much bigger national problem.
All of this should be done with, keeping in view to improving the infrastructure in the state, such as roads, water, electricity, etc. Foreign investors would shy away if infrastructure issues were not tackled first.
In this context, the Karnataka government should first look at having some solar/PV fabs in the state, as well as those in the nanotech space. Next, it would be prudent to pursue a policy of attracting companies in the verification and testing domains. Rather, have companies in the ATMP space, a pointer, which has been coming up in most of the discussions.
As an example, last year, an Israeli company -- Nova Measuring Instruments -- was keen on entering India. Nova develops, produces, and markets advanced monitoring, measurement and process control systems for the semiconductor manufacturing industry. It should be pursued to start assembly and testing of products in the state.
Wafer IC fabs are going to be a tough act to follow. Unless a company can get the requisite funding for a 300mm fab, it is not advisable to follow that path. However, there is room for developing 200mm fabs, or even 150mm and 180mm fabs. These can be used to develop indigenous and simple applications. If such fabs are developed, those companies offering fab-related services can be attracted as well.
The Indian semicon policy statement speaks about having ecosystem units. It would be advisable to attract smaller companies and look at setting up manufacturing units. As an example, Synopsys's Subhash Bal had once pointed out how RFID can be used in a host of applications. That's not all. Why not pursue companies in the OLEDs/LEDs and PDPs spaces as well, besides those manufacturing LCDs, even if smaller-sized.
Finally, consider attracting and promoting companies in the fabless space, as it looks to be the way ahead for the semiconductor industry.
Here is a 10-point program for the Karnataka government to consider as a likely semiconductor policy.
1. A long-term semiconductor policy running 20-25 years or so.
2. Core team of top Indian leaders from Indian firms and MNCs, as well as technology institutes in Karnataka to oversee policy implementation.
3. Incentives such as government support, including stake in investments, and tax holidays.
4. Strong infrastructure availability and management.
5. Focus on having solar/PV fabs in the state.
6. Consider having 150/180/200mm fabs that tackle local problems via indigenous applications.
7. Develop companies in the assembly testing, verification and packaging (ATMP) space.
8. Attract companies in fields such as RFID, to address local problems and develop local applications.
9. Pursue companies in the PDP, OLED/LED space to set up manufacturing units.
10. Promote and set up more fabless units.
There should be some steps to create specific zones for setting up such units -- for fabs, fabless, ATMP, manufacturing, etc., all spread equally across the state.
On a personal note, I would be keen and willing to work with the Indian/Karnataka government, or the concerned parties, in formulating such a policy, should I am invited. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than seeing India, and Karnataka, shining in the semiconductor space.
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